Among the various products of global circuit boards in 2020, the output value of substrates is estimated to have an annual growth rate of 18.5%, which is the highest among all products. The output value of substrates has reached 16% of all products, second only to multilayer Board and soft board. The reason why the carrier board has shown high growth in 2020 can be summarized as several main reasons: 1. Global IC shipments continue to grow. According to WSTS data, the global IC production value growth rate in 2020 is about 6%. Although the growth rate is slightly lower than the growth rate of output value, it is estimated to be about 4%; 2. The high-unit price ABF carrier board is in strong demand. Due to the high growth in demand for 5G base stations and high-performance computers, the core chips need to use ABF carrier boards The effect of rising price and volume has also increased the growth rate of carrier board output; 3. New demand for carrier boards derived from 5G mobile phones. Although the shipment of 5G mobile phones in 2020 is lower than expected by only about 200 million, the millimeter wave 5G The increase in the number of AiP modules in mobile phones or the number of PA modules in the RF front-end is the reason for the increased demand for carrier boards. All in all, whether it is technological development or market demand, the 2020 carrier board is undoubtedly the most eye-catching product among all circuit board products.
The estimated trend of the number of IC packages in the world. The package types are divided into high-end lead frame types QFN, MLF, SON…, traditional lead frame types SO, TSOP, QFP…, and fewer pins DIP, the above three types all only need the lead frame to carry IC. Looking at the long-term changes in the proportions of various types of packages, the growth rate of wafer-level and bare-chip packages is the highest. The compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 is as high as 10.2%, and the proportion of the overall package number is also 17.8% in 2019. , Rising to 20.5% in 2024. The main reason is that personal mobile devices including smart watches, earphones, wearable devices…will continue to develop in the future, and this type of product does not require highly computationally complex chips, so it emphasizes lightness and cost considerations Next, the probability of using wafer-level packaging is quite high. As for the high-end package types that use carrier boards, including general BGA and FCBGA packages, the compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 is about 5%.
The market share distribution of manufacturers in the global carrier board market is still dominated by Taiwan, Japan and South Korea based on the manufacturer’s region. Among them, Taiwan’s market share is close to 40%, making it the largest carrier board production area at present, South Korea The market share of Japanese manufacturers and Japanese manufacturers are among the highest. Among them, Korean manufacturers have grown rapidly. In particular, SEMCO’s substrates have grown significantly driven by the growth of Samsung’s mobile phone shipments.
As for future business opportunities, the 5G construction that began in the second half of 2018 has created demand for ABF substrates. After manufacturers have expanded their production capacity in 2019, the market is still in short supply. Taiwanese manufacturers have even invested more than NT$10 billion to build new production capacity, but will include bases in the future. Taiwan, communication equipment, high-performance computers… will all derive the demand for ABF carrier boards. It is estimated that 2021 will still be a year in which the demand for ABF carrier boards is difficult to meet. In addition, since Qualcomm launched the AiP module in the third quarter of 2018, 5G smart phones have adopted AiP to improve the signal reception capability of the mobile phone. Compared with the past 4G smart phones using soft boards as antennas, the AiP module has a short antenna. , RF chip…etc. are packaged in one module, so the demand for AiP carrier board will be derived. In addition, 5G terminal communication equipment may require 10 to 15 AiPs. Each AiP antenna array is designed with 4×4 or 8×4, which requires a larger number of carrier boards. (TPCA)